World Cup Bid Power Index: Russia Close on England; USA Top Qatar

(WFI) Russia narrows the gap on England in the third edition of World Football INSIDER's World Cup Bid Power Index, which shows the relative strengths and weaknesses of the nine bids for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.

Qatar slides out of the top three for the first time this year.

With 64 days until the FIFA Executive Committee decision on the tournament hosts, the bid power index looks very different from the May edition.

The new rankings reflect the merits of bid campaigning at the World Cup in South Africa and FIFA's verdict on the bids following its series of inspection visits.

England remain in pole position in the bid race but Russia - their main rivals for the 2018 tournament - are just one point behind.

The USA leapfrogs Qatar to move into third spot.

Across 10 categories, England scores 68 out of 100 possible points (up 3 points). Russia follows with 67 (up 5 points), with USA on 66 (up 5 points) and Qatar on 65 (up 2 points). Holland-Belgium and South Korea both have 61 points, with Australia a point adrift.

Failure to build on their early momentum is costing the other two bids, who have sub-60 scores; Spain-Portugal and Japan have lacked spark and dynamism in their campaigns over the summer and have much work to do to stand any chance of winning the FIFA vote.

The INSIDER Bid Power Index is the only regularly published review of World Cup bids that is based on expert analysis and first-hand contact with the bid nations, including interviews with bid leaders and information and figures from each of the bid launches.

The rankings are not meant to predict the outcome of the FIFA vote on Dec. 2, but to show the merits and drawbacks of the bidding nations at regular intervals before the decision.

The 10 categories are: bid operations/leadership; wow factor and unique selling points; relations with FIFA Executive Committee members; cost and funding resources; government and public support; international PR; venue plans; security; transport and accommodation; and legacy.

World Football INSIDER - 2018 / 2022 World Cup Bid Power Index - 29-September-2010
	Eng	Rus	USA	Qatar	Kor	Hol-Bel	Aus	Spn-Prg	Jap
Bid operation/leadership	6	7	7	6	6	6	5	4	4
Wow factor and USPs	8	6	6	6	5	5	7	5	5
Relation w/ FIFA members	7	7	7	7	8	6	6	8	5
Cost/funding resources	7	8	6	8	5	5	5	5	5
Government/public support	6	8	6	6	6	6	6	5	6
International PR	7	6	6	7	6	6	6	4	6
Venue plans	8	8	8	7	6	7	5	7	6
Security	6	5	6	5	6	6	6	6	6
Transport/Accommodation	7	5	8	6	6	7	7	7	6
Legacy	6	7	6	7	7	6	7	5	6
Bid Power Index Totals	68	67	66	65	61	61	60	56	55
(Note: individual scores out of 10 possible)

Progress of the bids on the campaign trail
The fact that the South African World Cup was considered by FIFA to be a success has worked in favour of Russia and Qatar, which both require significant venue and infrastracture building works. Lessons were learnt from South Africa, where transport infrastructure was not completed on time and stadiums finished at the last moment and after a $100million FIFA bail out. Another lesson from South Africa was that FIFA needs to keep its sponsors happy. Although its executives claimed that this was the most commercially successful World Cup ever, the scores of empty corporate seats hint at unrealised potential. Brazil 2014 threatens to be similarly problematic. Commercial imperatives may demand a "safe" 2018 or 2022 finals in an established market like England or the USA.

Australia - The roller-coaster cliche does not do the ups and downs of Australia's bid campaign justice. Since the last bid power index, Australia has been forced to drop out of the running for 2018 - a humiliating climbdown after AFC president Mohammed Bin Hammam used a congressional address to announce his confederation was backing Europe that year. Newspaper allegations about the propriety of some of the bid's internal accounting methods (later cleared by the Australian government) and the domestic challenges of the country's A-League have impacted on the bid. The country's domestic media has been unstinting in its criticism. But the Australian bid delegation was conspicuous by its presence in South Africa and has been busy on the campaign trail. The support of its government has solidified under the new administration led by Julia Gillard and new sports minister Mark Arbib, a self-confessed "soccer nut". There has also been clarification about its venue plans, which were in doubt virtually until the bid book handover on May 14 and unclear at the time the last bid index was published.

England - On the field, England had a disastrous World Cup. But the 2018 bid delegation made its presence felt and put together a powerful case, with bid international president David Dein leading lobbying efforts. Four months on, the consensus is that the fall-out from the Triesman affair - as reflected in INSIDER's last bid power index - was well handled and has had no real impact on the bid. But UEFA president Michel Platini has hinted that uncertainty over Triesman's successor as FA chairman could be harmful, although Russia's sports minister Vitaly Mutko told reporters on a media tour two weeks ago that he didn't the absence of a replacement for Triesman was a crucial issue for England. England may have achieved top marks out of FIFA's inspections of all nine bidders, with Chilean FA president Harold Mayne-Nicholls hailing a "perfect" visit. While a plus point, we think that it was an obstacle on the way and may not be something that will not necessarily change FIFA Ex-co members' minds on Dec. 2. A powerful international legacy argument has been put forward since the summer, which FIFA will like. England's PR effort is huge and far-reaching.

Holland-Belgium - Given that the Netherlands made the World Cup final, the lowlands bid did not generate a huge amount of PR on the campaign trail in South Africa. But their All-Stars football games and clinics spoke of their commitment to a World Cup legacy. In Ruud Gullit, a strong frontman for the bid, and bid CEO Harry Been, the details man, Holland-Belgium can pack a punch in their pitches to FIFA Ex-co members on foreign trips. The French-speaking side of the bid is also winning friends in high places. Nonetheless, the FIFA inspection tour generated hardly any PR coverage and Mayne-Nicholls was less than effusive in praising the bid.

Japan - Last week's admission by bid chairman Junji Ogura that Japan is facing challenges communicating its vision for the 2022 finals was refreshingly candid. But it hinted at the major problems the bid is having in articulating its vision. What was presented to the international media in London flew over many heads. After a summer campaign lacking any excitement, which has seen bid ambassadors and sponsors rolled out with little fanfare, the bid at least made an effort to court global media. Whether bid chiefs can provide more compelling reasons why Japan should host the World Cup for a second time is extremely doubtful.

Korea - South Korean bid leaders have been busy on the international campaign trail and, our intelligence tells us, is making strong inroads in this area. Political shifts in North Korea make the case for using football as a tool to unite more powerful and realistic. One imponderable aspect of their bid is Chung Mong-joon and his purported ambitions for the FIFA leadership. We think he is likely to stand against Sepp Blatter next year, but how this might impact the bid is difficult to tell. Will it add to his - and Korea's - political leverage, or is there a possibility that he might cut deals with rival bids that will ultimately act to the detriment of Korea 2022?

Qatar - Quite how badly Qatar will suffer from Harold Mayne-Nicholls's summing up at the conclusion of the FIFA inspection tour remains to be seen. But his “logistical challenges” comment made headlines worldwide; he questioned whether a small nation could host the finals and failed to make reference to the revolutionary new cooling technologies that have been touted as a key aspects of the bid. The sense that the normally even-handed Chilean had been unfair was palpable at the Doha press conference, for underlying his message was a sentiment that no matter what the rich Gulf kingdom promised it wouldn't be good enough. It was a big blow for Qatar. But the bid continues to run an excellent campaign, with money no object. Its new stadium plans are stunning and it boasts strong international and domestic legacy plans. The bid believes it has provided a viable solution to the problems posed by heat but the difficulty lies in overcoming perceptions that the country is just too hot and too small for the World Cup. Qatar's campaign is building up a head of steam, and with AFC president Mohammed Bin Hammam throwing his weight behind it, not least when he has given up on his FIFA presidential ambitions for another four years, there's no discounting the Gulf state's chances.
Has he cut a deal to get European support for his bid? We can only wait and see.

Russia - A successful World Cup in South Africa means FIFA won't be deterred from another legacy-focussed finals. Harold Mayne-Nicholls' assertion that work will need to start immediately if Russia is to host 2018 was construed as a warning. But bid CEO Alexey Sorokin has played down the issue; he told INSIDER in Moscow last week that 9 of 13 new stadium projects are existing or under construction. FIFA need only look at the way Russia is mobilising to build venues and infrastructure for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics to see the possibilities for 2018. Russia has provided more details of its new stadia programme since May, which would see the country's venue plans be the equal of England's and the USA's. It certainly adds some wow factor to a bid previously lacking stardust. We have also marked Russia up on government support, after additional guarantees underpinning these new constructions were signed along with commitments to waive visas and free ground transport for ticketholders for a Russian World Cup. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's presence in Zurich was effectively guaranteed. While we are convinced that the stadiums will be built, other parts of Russia's infrastructure plans remain sketchy. Government support for infrastructure sees them marked up 1 from a low of 4 on this, although details are still murky about the scope of the upgrading effort. Gains made by the recent media tours have been offset by racism rows and poor handling of them.

Spain-Portugal - Spain's prestige rose after winning the World Cup, but on the whole we are unconvinced by their bid, which lacks conviction, detail and international PR. Given Spain and Portugal's vibrant footballing culture and stadia infrastructure, we don't think that a World Cup there would be a bad thing - but the world has moved on from an age when sports bids were won or lost solely on the strength of back room machinations. This seems to be their sole strategy, when what their rivals are doing suggests that bids should be more sophisticated and multifacetted. Portugal's contribution of just two host cities to the Iberian bid leaves major question marks about how legacy benefits will be spread around the junior partner.

USA - The USA bid is a model of stability and consistency and continues to make a good case, although in his summing up FIFA bid inspection chairman Harold Mayne-Nicholls pointed out a flaw, namely that the bid is too domestically focused. South Africa's World Cup success and the confidence it engendered in future legacy tournaments may work against "safe" bids like the USA, but South Africa's commercial shortcomings will favour the USA, which has made a powerful commercial case. The decision to stay in the race for 2018 gives it political leverage, but could work against it if FIFA - and not the USA bid - dictate the exit strategy. The bid's “World Cup of Life” initiative,which proposes that for every ticket sold for a US finals - a record 5 million tickets are expected - water for life will be provided for one person, puts a new spin on legacy.

Bid Operations and Leadership
Of all nine bid leaders, Australia's CEO Ben Buckley has been put under the most intense pressure since the last bid power index. He's faced a rough ride from his domestic media over his management of Football Federation Australia, while the A-League faces serious problems. The accusation from some is that he is more concerned with the bid than domestic football issues. Certainly, it may have been wise earlier on in the bid process to have delegated some of his powers given that he effectively has three jobs (bid, league and FFA CEO). Given such responsibilities, he's doing okay. But will he be able to find more time to devote to the bid in the crucial final weeks of the campaign? England 2018 emerged from the Triesman affair virtually unscathed. Bid CEO Andy Anson and international president David Dein are performing well on the international FIFA circuit, building relationships with Ex-co members. A quicker succession to Triesman at the FA would have benefited the bid. For Japan, the addition of sports marketing guru, Patrick Nally, is important. He sells the Japanese vision with candour, honesty and sound commercial logic. But it could be too little too late, with the Japanese bid languishing at the bottom of the rankings.

Russia's bid chairman and sports minister Vitaly Mutko admitted to international media that he is feeling the burden of responsibility to deliver a successful bid. But he told INSIDER last week that he is "confident enough". Mutko and Alexey Sorokin's dismissal of racism problems in Russian football has done nothing to disguise the fact that it exists and needs to be tackled head-on, something the Russian Football Union has yet to address. Aside from the FIFA inspection, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has so far played a relatively low-key role in the campaign. But his influence will grow in the coming weeks and he could certainly swing a few votes for Russia when he shows up in Zurich ahead of the FIFA vote on Dec. 2. Let's not forget, he was credited with pushing Sochi over the line to secure the 2014 Winter Olympics thanks to personal lobbying efforts in Guatemala City three years ago.

The USA bid has shown consistently strong leadership and its bid chairman Sunil Gulati and CEO David Downs continue to talk the talk, unimpeded by the problems that have at times faced Russia and Australia in recent months, and previously the English bid. We have graded them up a point for their consistency.

Wow Factor/ Unique Selling Points
Some interesting innovations rolled out by Russia and Qatar. Russia's new generation of world-class stadia add some lustre to its bid and would give it a domestic bricks-and-mortar football legacy that would bring it into line with other European footballing powers. Qatar has provided a solution to the problems posed by the Gulf kingdom's cloying heat, with zero-carbon cooling technologies. Its modular stadium plans - and the offer to give many of its seats to less privileged nations post-finals - offer an economically sustainable legacy. Many harbour doubts about football going to such a hot, socially conservative country - but we can confirm that the Qataris know how to put on a good show.

USA's bid moves up a notch. The virtues of an 'easy' World Cup are clear to fans after South Africa proved a wearying experience for fans and other FIFA delegates. A ready-made World Cup in a developed country with world-class infrastructure will carry some wow factor after South Africa and Brazil 2014, so USA score a point more on this.

Japan faces a race against time selling their technologically-led proposals for the finals to the world. It's unlikely that these plans will go down very well with the FIFA Ex-co members, who will base their decisions on other more important factors. But read between the lines of their slightly incomprehensible proposals and there's no doubting Japan's hi-tech pitch could have big implications for global FIFA Fan Fests and FIFA's commercial partners.

Relations with FIFA Executive
There are those on the Australian bid who privately argue that winning the hearts and minds of the 24 FIFA Ex-co members is more important than winning over its own country and global football fans. But this may be a short-sighted strategy. Bidding for a major event in the 21st century surely requires a more well-rounded approach. Given its lack of political leverage (no FIFA Ex-co member, a recent member of the AFC), the bid is also at a distinct disadvantage compared to some of its rivals. At the same time, bid officials are certainly busying themselves in meeting FIFA Ex-co members and football executives within their inner circles, so for that reason we mark it up a grade.

England were also a big presence in South Africa, with David Dein's private jet criss-crossing the country on its way to meet Ex-co members. Dein's well-known face in the football corridors of power are helping the bid to make a big impression internationally. But there are suspicions that FIFA's most powerful in Zurich may favour anybody but England. We await Sepp Blatter's arrival in London with interest, although it is still unclear if he has accepted Prime Minister David Cameron's invitation.

Japan bid chairman bid chairman Junji Ogura's shock revelation last week that the bid is not planning to formally lobby FIFA Ex-co members until the final weeks of campaigning can only be to the detriment of the bid. It seems Japan 2022 leaders, like their Tokyo 2016 Olympic bid counterparts, are not hard-nosed enough for the dog-eat-dog world of international sports politics.

Qatar's bid got a boost when AFC president Mohammed Bin Hammam announced in the summer he won't stand against FIFA president Sepp Blatter in elections held next year. We know that such a powerbroker in international football would not surrender his ambitions lightly, and that if his decision is motivated by Qatar's bid some significant deals are likely to have been made behind the scenes to their advantage.

Spain's winning of the World Cup boosted their football prestige and may further their cause with the FIFA Ex-co. A bid with FIFA Ex-co votes from CONMEBOL in the bag can never be discounted. Deals made with 2022 bid contenders could give them further leverage. That said, the bid leadership emit a sense of entitlement that other bid teams have been desperate to avoid. This may work against them. We also think that international legacy is a powerful PR and lobbying tool and can cultivate support - both directly and indirectly - with the FIFA Executive and have marked up England and Qatar partly for their excellent work in this area.

Cost/ Funding Resources
Hardly a week has gone by, it seems, without England and Japan signing up further commercial sponsors. It demonstrates their already strong support in this sphere. But Spain-Portugal have experienced the worst of the European recession, casting doubt on building and infrastructure plans for a World Cup. Qatar will continue their quest to secure the 2022 World Cup whatever the cost. For Russia, the presence of oligarch and Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich at the bidding expo at June's FIFA Congress was a clear message to all delegates that money is no object. Russia's billionaires may be helping to fund the stadiums needed, but will they be so eager to put their hands in their pockets to build less prestigious but equally necessary projects such as roads, railways, airports and hotels.

Government and Public Support
The appointment of a powerful and football-mad sports minister will help Australia in the run-in, while support of the new government is assured. Britain's new coalition government is highly committed to the bid ,with Prime Minister David Cameron expected to join fellow Aston Villa fan Prince William for the final lobbying push in Zurich. Fortunately, the England bid is not really reliant on public money, or it may have suffered from the swingeing cuts Cameron has implemented in Britain. Vladimir Putin's presence when the FIFA inspectors were in Russia was a clear signal of intent. He will be a major force in Zurich. The Spanish media stopped reporting on the bid inspections the minute the inspectors stepped into Portugal, betraying the lack of solid support from their publc, and the Iberian bid team's singular failure to engage their public. The Emir of Qatar - father of bid chairman Sheikh Mohammed - met with FIFA inspectors after their visit last month, but may also be using his wealth and political influence work for the Qatari bid behind the scenes. Former US president Bill Clinton was conspicuous by his presence in South Africa and we think will play a big role in the USA bid in the closing weeks. Politically, he is about as big a draw as you can get. Strong support from vice president Joe Biden, a White House breakfast for the FIFA inspectors and a video message from George Bush see the USA bid scored up in this criteria. The bid has also made a good case with their own public, engaging them via Facebook and Twitter, grassroots initiatives and good old-fashioned PR. For that they get another mark.

International Public Relations
England's unveiling of Paul the Octopus as a bid ambassador was a silly gimmick ahead of the FIFA inspection, but it generated phenomenal global press coverage and drew attention to the bid effort. Throughout the campaign, the bid has staged a succession of effective PR set-pieces and its social media support is staggering. Each week its "Back the Bid" branding at English Premier League stadia is broadcast into hundreds of millions of homes and bars globally. It earns another mark for this overall campaign. Holland-Belgium's campaign, built around the promotion of green credentials and legacy plans, has lacked real spark. An international media tour (on which INSIDER was invited but unable to attend) generated hardly any publicity elsewhere. Against the PR machines of England and Russia, it will have to up the ante in the next nine weeks. Russia and Qatar also got plenty of column inches by hosting similar media tours. Japan's bid team have hit the road, trying to sell their technologically-led pitch to a sceptical international media. Even if the bid is destined to fail, it's progress of sorts and for that they get another mark. But the key question remains unanswered: Why should FIFA award another World Cup to Japan after its co-hosting of the 2002 tournament?

Spain-Portugal's appointment of international PR agency Fast-Track, who only became active for the bid earlier this month, briefly hinted at some mood change in a bid that had hitherto made no attempt to engage with the media. But it has come very late in the Iberian bid campaign - and since FIFA inspection team left Portugal there has been no international PR.

Next week's Leaders in Football conference and the International Football Arena event in Zurich next month are important platforms for the bids. Australia, Japan, Korea and Qatar are all expected to be well represented at the autumn football conferences.

Venue Plans
More clarity has emerged over Australia's venue plans since the May bid power index. Back then, rows with other football codes raised question marks about which stadiums would be used, almost until the day of the bid book handover. Exact plans were still not clear to the press and public when we published our index 12 days later. Since then Australia's proposed stadia have been published, offering a wide geographic spread and decent overall capacity; the infrastructure is solid rather than spectacular and is mostly in place. We have scored Australia up two marks on this criteria in line with Korea and Japan, who boast comparable stadia. Elsewhere, questions have been raised about the proposed new stadium in Bristol and over redevelopment plans for Sheffield's Hillsborough, but given England's excellent existing infrastructure we do not believe this to be any great problem. Japan's stadium infrastructure will be added to by Osaka's impressive Ecology Stadium, which is proposed as final and opening match venue in the 2022 bid.

Russia jumps up two marks after more details emerged about its ambitious stadium plans, including the 69,500-seat stadium with a moveable roof and retractable pitch currently under construction in Saint Petersburg. Qatar has unveiled five more stadiums since May, which blend iconic design with generous legacy proposals. It plans to stage the 2022 World Cup opening match and final in an 86,000-seat stadium in the new city of Lusail. But Qatar's overall capacity is still short of some of its rivals.

Now that most stadium plans have come to light, the virtues of the USA's pitch to host the best-attended World Cup of all time becomes clearer; it is guarantee to sell five million-plus tickets is a strong argument and that will play well with FIFA's top brass. But it's a shame that the MLS will not stand to benefit from the building of any new purpose-built stadiums for its teams.

Security
Russia's recent "Footballers Against Terrorism" initiative spoke of some of the challenges the country faces from minority extremists, although there is no cause for us to downgrade their scoring. Nor England, where the British government recently upgraded the threat from dissident Irish republicans. We do not believe this would pose a World Cup security threat, although memories still linger of the IRA's bombing of central Manchester during the 1996 European Championships. FIFA inspection chief Harold Mayne-Nicholls did not make mention of security issues during his closing statements following each of the nine bid visits, indicating that all the bids are on a sound footing - for now.

Transport/Accommodation
The challenges for the Australia, Russia and USA lie in demonstrating the effectiveness of mass transport systems to ensure fans can move easily and freely for a World Cup. Harold Mayne-Nicholls seemed to cast some doubt on the USA's transport system, which we find hard to credit. The FIFA inspection report may shed more details. For all Russia's promotion of government guarantees about waiving visas and providing for free ground transport for ticketholders, there's little clarity on how fans travelling without tickets would be dealt with. With four venue clusters, the bid touts a 2hr flight time from Moscow to any other host city. But more detail is required on air and train transport - and what is required to upgrade the infrastructure - before marking the bid up further. FIFA inspectors were reportedly critical of this aspect of this bid.

Legacy
FIFA has indicated that it would like to see greater international legacy aspects in World Cup bids. Some, such as England and Qatar, contain strong international proposals. England's well-developed programme in Africa was highlighted during the World Cup, while David Beckham's football academy in Trinidad last weekend was a prime example of some of its work. England gets a point extra on legacy. Qatar's pledge to donate 190,000 seats from its modular stadiums post-finals to less privileged nations is a generous gesture. Holland-Belgium and Korea also have international development programmes, while Australia has a series of cooperation agreements with neighbouring countries to try and develop football. These are praiseworthy, but perhaps not established enough to make a real difference. The legacy plans of Russia appear to be largely domestically focussed. INSIDER was given exclusive access to the USA’s bid book, and scrutiny of it reveals that the bid’s legacy case transcends bid chairman Sunil Gulati’s “50 year plan” to turn the country into a football-loving nation. The bid proposes a surcharge of 2.018 per cent or 2.022 per cent on every World Cup ticket, which will generate about $25 million dollars and enable the bid to finance the infrastructure needed to provide one million people around the world with water for life. This legacy promise is a key plank of the USA's campaigning in the final weeks of the bid race.

South Korea's pitch to somehow include North Korea as part of their bid looks less fanciful now than it did in May, following the sinking of a naval vessel by the North. A recent survey of Korean economists said that a majority expected reunification to happen in the 2020s. FIFA's executive are bent on historical legacy - none more so than Sepp Blatter - and this may well persuade some members to part with a precious vote. We have scored Korea up on this aspect of its bid.

Written by INSIDER's James Corbett and Mark Bisson

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