World Cup Bid Power Index - England Surges Ahead; Qatar Improves, Australia Slides

(WFI) With 189 days until the FIFA Executive Committee decision on the hosts of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, the second edition of the WFI World Cup Bid Power Index shows the relative strengths and weaknesses of the nine bids.

England strengthens its grip on top spot in the second edition of the World Cup Bid Power Index, despite the bribery scandal of two weeks ago that forced the resignation of chairman David Triesman. The swift appointment of Geoff Thompson, a FIFA and UEFA vice president, will work to its advantage.

Qatar and Russia are close behind in second and third. The USA is ranked fourth.

Australia is the biggest loser in the bid index, sliding out of the top four from the No.2 position they occupied in the February edition. It has dropped to seventh place and is five points off its 2022 rival Qatar.

Across 10 categories, England scores 65 out of 100 possible points (up 1 point). Qatar follows with 63 (up 2 points), with Russia on 62 and the USA on 61 (both up 1 point).

Notching sub-60 scores are Australia, Holland-Belgium, Korea and Spain-Portugal. with 53 points, Japan is languishing well behind.

But there are promising signs for Holland-Belgium and Korea, who both improve by three points on the first World Cup Bid Power Index published in February.

The WFI Bid Power Index is the only regularly published review of World Cup bids that is based on expert analysis and first-hand contact with the bid nations, including interviews with bid leaders and information and figures from each of the bid launches.

The rankings are not meant to predict the outcome of the FIFA vote on Dec. 2, 2010, but to show the merits and drawbacks of the bidding nations at regular intervals before the decision.

The 10 categories are: bid operations/leadership; wow factor and unique selling points; relations with FIFA Executive Committee members; cost and funding resources; government and public support; international PR; venue plans; security; transport and accommodation; and legacy.

World Football Insider - 2018 / 2022 World Cup Bid Power Index - 26-May-2010
	Eng	Qat	Rus	USA	Kor	Hol-Bel	Aus	Spn-Prg	Jap
Bid operation/leadership	6	6	7	6	6	6	5	4	4
Wow factor and USPs	8	6	5	5	5	5	7	5	4
Relation w/ FIFA members	6	6	7	7	7	5	5	7	5
Cost/funding resources	7	8	8	6	5	5	5	5	5
Government/public support	6	6	7	5	6	6	6	5	6
International PR	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	4	5
Venue plans	8	6	6	7	6	7	4	7	6
Security	6	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6
Transport/Accommodation	7	6	4	8	6	7	7	7	6
Legacy	5	7	7	5	6	6	7	5	6
Bid Power Index Totals	65	63	62	61	59	59	58	55	53
(Note: individual scores out of 10 possible)

Bid Operations and Leadership
England 2018's change of leadership was the big story the weekend of the bid book handovers to FIFA on May 14. But the furore over the David Triesman affair should not completely overshadow an excellent bid with outstanding credentials. Geoff Thompson's appointment as new bid chairman may ultimately work to their advantage in terms of vote-getting; as a FIFA and UEFA vice president he is well-connected and an influential voice in football's corridors of power. The backlash against the Mail on Sunday newspaper's reporting of Triesman's bribery allegations has solidified already strong domestic support. FIFA president Sepp Blatter has hinted at a preference for the Russian bid, and his body language showed as much in Zurich 12 days ago. Even while trying to appear even-handed, he described bid CEO Alexey Sorokin as "my friend Alex". This was in stark contrast to his apparent reluctance to engage England's bid leaders. Holland-Belgium's new president Ruud Gullit articulates a good vision and in leading bid delegations around the world has certainly strengthened his country's campaign.

It's been a shambolic few months for Australia's leadership. Bid chiefs Frank Lowy and Ben Buckley have struggled to win the support of the AFL and other sporting codes. The fact that stadiums were only sorted a few days before the bid book handover raises serious questions about Australia's ability to deliver a World Cup. If it can't get domestic support, how can it expect to get international backing? Lack of feel for football among bid team executives - which has haemarraged senior figures since the start of the year - is starting to transmit to Australian soccer fans; the bid can't afford to have their scepticism allied with those of other codes. It has also raised further doubts among fellow AFC nations who are cold to their newest member in any case. Australia would have won some favours if they had made the decision to follow Japan in dropping out of the 2018 World Cup bidding contest to focus on landing the 2022 tournament.

Korea have a strong bid operations and leadership team but they are finding it hard to make an international impression. Japan has bolstered its leadership with the addition of major business leaders coupled with royal and government backing, but it's struggling to articulate what its pitch stands for or why it deserves a second go. Qatar's young and dynamic leadership continues to impress, notably at the bid book handover when chairman Sheikh Mohammed bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani delivered an assured performance with FIFA chief Sepp Blatter watching on. Spain-Portugal's president Angel Maria Villar Llona may sit at FIFA's top table but the bid is languishing behind its European rivals in communicating its vision globally.

Wow Factor/Unique Selling Points
England maintains its top-ranking in this category; there's no doubting its capacity to deliver an incredible World Cup using some of the most iconic venues on the planet. Australia's major event experience contributed to it level pegging with England in the previous index. But its wow factor is diminished by its squabbles with other sporting codes and eleventh-hour decision on naming a finals venue. The comments of Football Federation Australia chairman Frank Lowy at the bid book presentation in Zurich were telling. "We hope and pray that we might be the lucky country," Lowy said. Hardly the stuff of a well-organised and confident bid. Qatar's aspiration to host the first World Cup in the Middle East is an important part of its narrative but despite some interesting ideas in stadium cooling technologies it lacks the dazzle factor. Holland-Belgium's "green" World Cup pitch was unexpected and original (if you can discount Indonesia's unlamented efforts), but whether this will gain credence with the FIFA executive is another matter.

Relations with FIFA Executive
Qatar is emerging as a serious contender for 2022 after continuing to provide answers to practical questions, mainly alleviating fears over playing football in a hot climate. Blatter seemed enamoured with the idea of a Middle Eastern bid, and one from such a small country, at the bid book handover. He seems enthusiastic, but are fellow ex-co members? Qatari Mohamed Bin Hammam, president of the Asian Football Confederation, continues to be hugely significant to Qatar's chances especially with South Korea gathering momentum. Overtures to North Korea might be rhetorical, but are enticing to a FIFA Ex-co obsessed with making history. Well received by FIFA executive committee members; bidding for just 2022 now looks a wise bid and has got them a degree of leverage with European bids. Low cost and reliable. Football-mad population - as we are likely to witness in South Africa this summer - and a vibrant football culture are big USPs against other Asian contenders.

No doubting Spain-Portugal's good relations with the FIFA executive but they offer no compelling reasons why they should be awarded the World Cup. Serious questions remain about their commitment to each other; why has Spain got 16 host cities, but Portugal has only two? Bids from England and Holland-Belgium appear to be making more friends internationally on their travels abroad - and are keenly publicising their trips.

Cost/Funding Resources
No major changes here. Free-spending Russia and Qatar can be expected to blow holes in their significant bid budgets in the coming months. They threw thousands at sponsorship of the Soccerex European Forum in Manchester and will also have a major presence at Soccerex Asia in Singapore in July. Both are spending billions on venues and infrastructure. Australia has adopted a more low-key approach and doesn't have the money to splash out on major promotional activities. It only boasts Qantas and Cisco as official bid partners. Sponsorships for England have come thick and fast in recent weeks, putting the bid on a good financial footing and maintaining its global profile as the campaign steps up. Sports manufacturer Umbro last week became the fifth top-tier partner, joining England 2018 partners Morrisons, BT, British Airways and PriceWaterhouseCoopers in a deal worth around $1.4 million.

Government and Public Support
As it did with the Sochi 2014 Olympics, the Russian government is making the World Cup bid a priority project. Britain's new Conservative-Liberal Democrats coalition government has got straight behind England 2018. On coming to power earlier this month, Prime Minister David Cameron said: “The FIFA World Cup is a cause that unites the nation like no other. Football is at the heart of so many of our communities and there can be no doubt that England would offer a warm and passionate welcome to fans and players in 2018. We will do everything in our power to help win the honour of hosting this prestigious event.” New UK sports minister Hugh Robertson is also having an excellent first few weeks in the job and making positive noises about the bid.

Australia's bid chief Frank Lowy said his country was united behind the bid and promised "the best World Cup that ever was" two weeks ago. But it's hard to see the truth in this statement. The battles with rival sporting codes are not over. The Socceroos drew 55,000 for their friendly 2-1 win over New Zealand at the MCG yesterday but other sports like the AFL and rugby codes have deeper roots in Australia and a much bigger fanbase that is being disillusioned by the bid team's demands to other sports over scheduling and stadia use if the country were to stage the tournament. Japan enjoys good public backing. Blatter revealed on May 14 that he had received a personal letter from Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatayama citing his support for his country’s bid. The USA's latest bid ambassador, former US president Bill Clinton, shows it is gaining heavyweight political support. But president Barack Obama seems reluctant to come around to soccer and won't be attending this summer's World Cup.

International Public Relations
Japan's 208 smiles concept looks like an ill-conceived marketing project. Two weeks ago Blatter praised the “originality” of the Japanese World Cup bid, which was presented to him via a Sony PSP gaming device in a glass display case. But such gimmicks mean little to FIFA's decision-makers. Holland-Belgium's leader Ruud Gullit is well-connected and with Dutch legend Johann Cruyff now on board they are winning the charm offensive and boosting the bid's international profile in the run-in to Dec. 2. The joint bid's PR machine is a lot slicker than it was three months ago. England 2018 continue to trumpet their visits to see FIFA Ex-co members. The Iberian bid only launched its website last month and loses a mark for failing to do anything to generate publicity in the media outside of Spain and Portugal. England, Qatar and the USA are perhaps the most active in promoting their bids on social media networks like Twitter and Facebook. David Beckham will be England 2018's star man in South Africa. After the FIFA Congress on June 10, the nine bidders take part in a bidding expo.

Venue Plans
With Wembley, Manchester United's Old Trafford and another seven Premier League grounds, England's stadia proposition puts it head and shoulders above the other eight bids. Australia again loses ground owing to the fact it finalised its venues just a few days before the May 14 bid book handover. Three new stadiums will be built and nine others upgraded in 10 cities if the bid is successful. Qatar revealed its $4 billion stadium construction budget, part of the massive investment in improving the country’s infrastructure. Its stadium cooling systems unveiled in recent weeks are said to represent an environmentally friendly “solution” to the problem of Doha’s searing heat. The USA's stadium package offers FIFA a big-money World Cup - 18 stadiums with an average capacity of 76,000.

Security
Most of the bidders don't make bid book security highlights available. But England 2018 trumpets its world-leading status in football safety and security and being at the forefront of counter-terrorism strategy. "Through the close coordination of relevant agencies, we ensure the safe and smooth running of approximately 3,000 professional matches every season throughout England," the bid book says. As in the February index, Russia's recent history of terrorist attacks presents the most risk to FIFA. The recent subway bombings in Moscow again demonstrated its serious problems with terrorism. But it's major event experience, including the 2008 UEFA Champions League final between Manchester United and Chelsea, will be used to silence naysayers.

Transport/Accommodation
The US bid's transport system is one of the best but the distance between cities and venues raises questions over whether they would be able to fill stadia for low-profile World Cup matches. Russia's transport and accommodation infrastructure requires billion-dollar investment. The other European bids, together with Japan and South Korea, have well-established public transport networks capable of moving large numbers of football fans and do not have significant issues in accommodating visitors. In promising “the greenest World Cup ever”, Holland-Belgium has an original plan - two million free bicycles would be available for fans to cycle to World Cup matches. Qatar gains a point. It is developing a modern integrated railway system in collaboration with German railway experts Deutsche Bahn. The multi-billion dollar project includes a high-speed rail link to Bahrain. Qatar's proposed 110,000 hotel rooms with 90,000 available to FIFA assuage some doubts about the ability of a small nation to cope with such a massive tournament

Legacy
Qatar's new cooling technologies offer a solution to the summer heat and its willingness to share the technological knowledge with other nations offers a legacy to football in hot climates. Modular stadium plans offer generous legacy to Asian football, with Qatar committed to distributing 170,000 stadium seats to poorer nations through ROTA (Reach out to Asia) programme. For England, the Football United global sports development fund showcases and builds on the excellent development work done by the Football Association in Africa. The USA represents a safe pair of hands and it has a new line on legacy, which lifts it by a point in the rankings. US Soccer chief Sunil Gulati's claim that a World Cup will assure America's status as a "soccer nation" is surely appealing to FIFA. Likewise the massive tickets sales and TV revenue guaranteed.

Much has been made of Russia's legacy, but questions remain as to how it will be delivered. Nearly 20 years after the fall of communism, transport, hotels and communications remain substandard in many places outside of Moscow; can Russia really deliver on its promises in eight years, or will it be like Ukraine - whose problems in delivering Euro 2012 have nearly seen it stripped of the tournament? Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov says that Russia's economy is much larger, but why hasn't it delivered before now? Legacy is also focussed on Russia and its neighbouring republics, which may limit its appeal to fellow FIFA Ex-co members when England and Qatar are so active in promoting football-led development in Africa and Asia respectively.


Written by World Football Insider editor Mark Bisson (mark@worldfootballinsider.com) and European correspondent James Corbett (james@worldfootballinsider.com)


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